New Delhi: The geopolitical crisis in the Western Hemisphere has reached a boiling point this Monday morning. Just days after a stunning US military operation in Venezuela resulted in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, US President Donald Trump has turned his sights on Cuba.
On Sunday, January 11, 2026, Trump issued a stark ultimatum to the island nation: cut a deal with Washington immediately or face total economic strangulation. The warning, posted on his Truth Social platform, has sent shockwaves through the Global South, with India closely monitoring the situation—especially after reports confirmed three Indian crew members are stuck on a tanker seized by the US Navy.
Here is a complete breakdown of the “Zero Oil” threat, the Venezuela connection, and how this distant conflict is starting to impact India.
1. The Ultimatum: “Make a Deal Before It’s Too Late”
President Trump did not mince words. In a direct threat to the Cuban government, he declared that the era of subsidized Venezuelan oil is over.
- The Statement: “There will be no more oil or money going to Cuba – ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” Trump wrote in all-caps.
- The Context: For decades, Cuba has relied on cheap oil from Venezuela (approx. 27,000 barrels per day) in exchange for providing security and intelligence services. Trump claims this “protection racket” is now over.
- Marco Rubio Factor: Trump also reposted a suggestion that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (a Cuban-American) could become the “President of Cuba,” adding simply: “Sounds good to me!”
2. The Venezuela Trigger: Operation “Absolute Resolve”
To understand the Cuba crisis, you must look at what happened last week. In the early hours of January 3, 2026, US Special Forces launched a dramatic operation codenamed “Absolute Resolve” in Caracas.
- The Capture: The raid led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. They were flown to New York to face “narco-terrorism” charges.
- Cuban Casualties: Reports indicate that roughly 32 Cuban security personnel (bodyguards) were killed during the raid, further inflaming tensions between Havana and Washington.
- The Blockade: Since the operation, the US Navy has effectively blocked oil tankers from leaving Venezuelan ports for Cuba.
3. Cuba’s Defiant Response: “Last Drop of Blood”
Despite the looming blackout, the Cuban leadership has refused to bow down.
- President’s Reply: Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel took to X (formerly Twitter) to reject the threat, stating, “Cuba is a free, independent, and sovereign nation. Nobody dictates what we do.” He added that his country is “ready to defend the homeland to the last drop of blood.”
- Ground Reality: The situation in Havana is grim. Reports suggest the city is facing 12-hour rolling blackouts. Long lines for food and fuel have become the new normal, with citizens fearing a return to the “Special Period” of the 1990s.
4. The India Connection: 3 Indians Stuck?
While this may seem like a distant conflict, it has hit home for India.
- Seized Tanker: On January 7, 2026, the US Navy intercepted a Venezuela-linked oil tanker in the Caribbean. Reports from RT India and other sources confirm that three Indian nationals are among the crew members on board.
- MEA Statement: In a press briefing on Friday, MEA Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal confirmed that India is aware of the situation and is working to ensure the safety of its citizens.
- Energy Impact: India, a major voice of the Global South, has historically maintained good ties with both Cuba and Venezuela. New Delhi is now in a tight spot—balancing its strategic partnership with the US while advocating against unilateral sanctions that hurt civilian populations.
5. What Happens Next?
- Regime Change? US officials seem intent on pushing the communist government in Cuba to collapse by cutting off all resources. Trump’s “Zero Oil” policy is designed to starve the island’s power grid.
- Migration Crisis: Experts warn that a total economic collapse in Cuba could trigger a massive exodus of refugees toward the US border, creating a new humanitarian crisis.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: Why did Donald Trump threaten Cuba with “Zero Oil”?
Trump claims Cuba was propping up the Venezuelan regime in exchange for free oil. Now that the US military has captured Maduro, Trump wants to force Cuba to abandon its socialist system by cutting off this critical energy supply.
Q2: What is Operation Absolute Resolve?
It is the codename for the US military operation launched on January 3, 2026, which resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas.
Q3: Are Indians affected by this conflict?
Yes. Reports indicate that three Indian crew members are currently on an oil tanker that was seized by the US Navy as part of the blockade against Venezuela/Cuba. The Indian government is monitoring their safety.
Q4: Is it safe to travel to Cuba right now?
Travel is highly risky. Due to the “Zero Oil” blockade, Cuba is facing severe power outages (blackouts) and shortages of food and water. Tourism services are severely disrupted.
Q5: Who is running Venezuela now?
Following Maduro’s capture, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has been sworn in as Acting President by the Venezuelan National Assembly, though the US has stated it will “oversee” the transition.